POLITICAL RISK IN EASTERN EUROPE IN 2018
1. THE NEW COLD WAR
1. THE DEMISE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION
There is a growing risk that the process of European integration will unravel, with far-reaching implications for economic and political stability in Eastern Europe.
Russia and the West
2. THE NEW COLD WAR
Russia and the West are engaged in a multi-dimensional conflict over the boundary between them which is destabilising regional politics and causing significant economic damage.
The Balkans and the European Union
3. THE MIGRANT CRISIS
A wave of immigration from Africa and Asia into Eastern Europe poses a significant risk to civil order, governmental stability and the integrity of supply lines.
Central Europe and the Balkans
4. ECONOMIC NATIONALISM
There is a growing trend for governments in the region to reassert national control over strategic sectors to enforce conformity with their political objectives.
5. STATE CAPTURE AND CORRUPTION
Eastern Europe has a serious problem with corruption and the capture of the state by oligarchical elites, posing risks to the viability of investments and to political stability.
6. CIVIL UNREST
There is an elevated risk of strikes and demonstrations leading to institutional paralysis, a slowdown in economic activity, and breaches in supply lines.
There is an increased danger of terrorist attack, especially in the Balkans, linked to the rise and fall of Islamic State.
8. STATE DISINTEGRATION
There is a growing risk that multi-ethnic states in the Western Balkans will disintegrate, reigniting conflict in the region.
9. STATE FAILURE IN UKRAINE
Eastern Europe’s largest country is under severe political and economic stress, with negative consequences for much of the region.
China and the Region
10. THE ARRIVAL OF CHINA
China is becoming a major direct investor in Eastern Europe, diluting the political influence of the EU and US in the region, and exposing the region a variety of long-term economic risks.